I’m sorry to be posting my election prediction so late, but here it is. Polls have closed across the East of the country, and Clinton is currently up 75 to 66 in the race to 270. I’m also sorry for the poor writing and lack of funny that will be found in this post, as I’m writing it in a rush.
Myself and some of the guys I’m in the US with are having a competition to see who can guess the electoral college result the most accurately. I’ve predicted 325-213 in favour of Clinton. I’ll let you know how I do.
If you look at my map below, it’s currently spot on. However, this prediction was made on Sunday 23rd October, during the height of Clinton’s debate boost and Trump’s sexual harassment allegations, and long before Comey and the polls tightening again.
There are areas that will be wrong, however. I think North Carolina may well go blue, and early projections have Clinton up in Ohio, but that race is still far too close to call. There are many other interesting areas, and if you have any questions, please do comment on this post, be it on my blog or Facebook. Might I quickly add that there is research, polling data, past elections and more behind my predictions. They’re not just random predictions on how the polls looked at the time of making said predictions.
On a side note, I also predicted that with two historically unpopular candidates, we’d see very low turnout. By known trends, unpopular candidates drive down turnout. However, we’ll have to see whether or not the electorate gets the vote out in a big way. The driver of high turnout in 2016 could well be multifaceted in electing the first female President and stopping Trump winning the White House.
Anyway, I digress. Here is my electoral map. It’ll be a long night and we’re still early in the race to 270.